How does foreign hiring for basic, manual jobs affect US firms and workers?
We study nationwide, randomized allocation of the principal US work visa for non-college workers.
Just released today by #CESifo, my working paper with @EthanGLewis@twitter.com ⟶ https://www.cesifo.org/node/72441 #Laborecon #Economics #immigration @laborecon
Summary thread ☞
www.cesifo.orgThe Effect of Low-Skill Immigration Restrictions on US Firms and Workers: Evidence from a Randomized LotteryThe U.S. limits work visas for low-skill jobs outside of agriculture, with a binding quota that firms access via a randomized lottery. We evaluate the marginal impact of the quota on firms entering the 2021 H-2B visa lottery using a novel survey and pre-analysis plan. Firms exogenously authorized to employ more immigrants significantly increase production (elasticity +0.16) with no decrease or an increase in U.S. employment (elasticity +0.10, statistically imprecise) across several pre-registered subsamples.