Wendy Edelberg<p>As I think about tomorrow's CPI release, here's what I am puzzling over. I don't see how we get a substantial slowing in inflation without a sharp drop in real spending on consumer goods. That spending is down - but still Very Strong. I doubt inflation will be brought down by a housing cycle alone. This all leads me to think the Fed needs to do more until there is a genuine decline in real spending on consumer goods. If inflation comes down without that - I think we chalk that up to luck.</p>